UMass epidemiologist says state should consider return to Phase 2 of reopening if uptick in positive cases persists

WORCESTER -- The chief epidemiologist at UMass Memorial Medical Center said consideration should be given to a return to the more restrictive Phase 2 of the state's reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic, if the slight uptick in positive coronavirus cases continues for another two weeks.

"If you're trying to control a brush fire," Dr. Richard T. Ellison III said this week, "you don't want it to extend into acres and acres of land before you start acting. You want to start in the beginning, and try to control it early.

"If the numbers keep going in the same direction they're going, and it's a slight increase now ... If in two weeks, it's twice as high as it is now, then we can say there's a clear trend in Massachusetts that things are not as controlled as they were in early July. There should be consideration to whether we want to go back to a Phase 2 at that point."

Ellison targeted two weeks because, he said, "What we're seeing now really represents infections that took place two weeks ago."

On Wednesday, city officials said that there are 20 COVID-positive inpatients at local hospitals, representing an eight-case jump from last week. All but one of those cases are within the UMass Memorial Health Care system.

On March 10, Gov. Charles D. Baker Jr. declared a state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic, ordering closure of all businesses and organizations with the exception of those that were deemed essential.

On May 18, the governor released a four-phased plan to reopen the economy, spending at least three weeks in each phase. The first phase allowed construction and manufacturing businesses, among others, to reopen.

The second phase, in June, allowed indoor dining, barbers, personal training, among other businesses, to resume.

Last month, on the backdrop of a 94% decrease in positive COVID-19 test rates over seven days, and a three-day average of hospitalized patients reduced by 79%, the state's Phase 3 of reopening allowed "higher risk businesses" such as museums, fitness centers, casinos, certain indoor recreational activities, and professional sports teams without spectators, to resume.

Ellison, the UMass epidemiologist, said the UMass system, including its HealthAlliance, Marlboro and Worcester campuses, had about 200 people in the hospital for COVID-19 back in April. But it got that number to under 10 patients by July 15.

It remained under 10 patients through most of July, he noted.

But by last week, the system was averaging about 15 patients, Dr. Ellison said.

"It's far better than it was before (in April), but that's higher than it was three weeks ago," he said.

Equally important is UMass' tracking of patients who are testing positive for COVID-19 per 100 patients, Ellison said.

Back in April, he said, the facility was averaging about 23 positive cases per 100 people tested, with a one-day peak that month of 30%.

But since July, that rate has dropped significantly, anywhere from one to two people per 100 patients tested.

"There's a slight increase in the number of people going to the hospital," Ellison said, "and there is a real potential for this to go back up again. We're not seeing very much. It seems that there is a very slight upswing right now."

But Ellison offered that, "I don't want to get in a situation where we're like we were in April or May, or having situations like a lot of the southern states, where the testing rates are above 10, 15% of people testing positive."

Asked for comment about the recent uptick, a St. Vincent Hospital spokesperson released a statement.

"Saint Vincent Hospital," the statement read, "has plans in place to continue providing care safely. This has been a challenging time for our community. Many patients have postponed medical care, or are in need of treatment for new symptoms. Our hospital is serving the community and providing this needed care, including elective surgeries, imaging, diagnostic screenings and emergency services.

"In the event we see a surge of positive cases, we have capacity, appropriate supplies and the ability to operationalize additional beds within the hospitals to increase our capacity, if needed. We encourage our community not to delay care for new or chronic conditions requiring medical attention, which can lead to life threatening illnesses, and we have taken the appropriate steps and implemented protocols to continue to provide safe care.

"It is important to continue to adhere to safe personal practices, masking, social distancing and frequent hand washing."

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